Spot attendance risk before persistent absence by looking for a change across more than one time window, then checking the sessions and the pupil context behind it. Don't wait for a pupil to miss 10% of possible sessions. Equally, don't turn a short dip into a prediction. Record the source, pattern, missing evidence, pupil and family views, support action, owner and review date on one change card.
This guide is for SENCos, attendance leaders, pastoral teams and school leaders in England. It reflects Department for Education guidance checked on 17 August 2026. It isn't legal advice and doesn't replace the school's attendance, SEND or safeguarding procedures.
Treat change as a prompt, not a forecast
Persistent absence means missing 10% or more of possible sessions. The DfE's absence bandings report uses year-to-date data and includes pupils once they have at least 20 possible sessions. It is designed to identify pupils who are approaching the threshold as well as those who have crossed it.
A year-to-date percentage can hide when the movement occurred. Put the latest 20 possible sessions beside the longer year-to-date view, then inspect the individual session marks. Use a comparable previous period only when the pupil was on roll and the source is complete. Entry-year and transfer data may be missing, while current filters may not show a pupil's earlier SEN status.
The aim is timely enquiry. A recent cluster can reflect coding, illness, appointments, timetable access, transport, bullying, caring responsibilities, unmet support or unrelated events. The pattern alone cannot select among them. Administrative data is very good at saying that something happened and notably less gifted at explaining the Tuesday.
Build one six-line attendance change card
- Source and coverage: record the MIS extraction date, possible sessions, missed sessions, missing marks, enrolment dates and any recently corrected codes.
- Change: show the latest 20 possible sessions beside year-to-date attendance and, when complete and comparable, the same period in the previous year.
- Shape: inspect days, morning or afternoon sessions, codes, late arrival, return after absence and any timetable or placement change. Keep counts beside rates.
- Connected context: check relevant SEND adjustments, provision delivery, health arrangements, behaviour or curriculum access through authorised records. Record what is unavailable.
- Voice: hear the pupil and family through an accessible route. Keep their accounts attributed, including disagreement or uncertainty.
- Action: name the barrier the school can test, the support owner, the review date and the evidence that would change the plan.
Use the same card for pupils with strong overall attendance when a meaningful change appears. A blanket percentage trigger can miss a sharp individual shift. It can also overreact to a tiny denominator, so session counts and source coverage stay visible.
Follow the question as evidence arrives
This made-up record combines common review details. It describes no pupil, family, school or customer. After 40 possible sessions, a pupil has missed three, giving 7.5% absence. The pupil is below the persistent-absence threshold, but two missed sessions occurred on the previous two Friday afternoons.
The attendance lead first checks the register. One mark records illness; another has been updated after family contact. The source confirms a change, but not a shared cause. Previous attendance is broadly stable, although the record from an earlier school is incomplete.
The SENCo then checks the current plan and provision record. Both Friday afternoons involved a room change, and agreed transition support was unavailable on one date and unconfirmed on the other. The pupil says the altered route is hard to follow after lunch. The family reports no transport change and asks for the Friday plan to be made clearer.
The professional question becomes: “Is predictable transition support available before the Friday afternoon lesson?” The SENCo confirms the visual route and cover owner. The attendance lead keeps the family contact open and reviews the next 20 possible sessions with the pupil.
None of this proves that support caused the absences, predicts persistent absence or establishes a diagnosis. A different code, pupil account, provision record or timetable pattern could change the plan. If separate information suggests immediate harm, staff use the school's DSL and local or emergency route without waiting for this review.
Use the card to organise support, not enforcement
The July 2026 statutory guidance asks schools to identify individual and cohort patterns as soon as possible, listen to pupils and parents, remove in-school barriers and arrange timely support. Schools should be particularly mindful where mental or physical ill health or SEND affects attendance, including reasonable adjustments and additional support.
An early signal does not establish the national threshold for a penalty notice, parental responsibility for a particular absence or the need for a formal route. Keep this card inside the school's support-first process. Review whether the agreed action was delivered and what the pupil and family say before interpreting the next percentage.
Keep the evidence route visible
Student Radar's available Attendance Analytics supports trend, period, session, cohort and pupil-list review. The Heatmap can help authorised staff open relevant pupil context behind the pattern. Attendance Playbooks provides graduated strategies and lets schools add their own interventions.
These features cannot predict persistent absence, diagnose a barrier, determine a safeguarding threshold or choose support, sanction or legal action. Staff validate the source records, hear the pupil and family, and own the decision.
Close the review with four answers
- What changed, across which complete and comparable sessions?
- What do the pupil, family and relevant support records add or dispute?
- Which school-controlled barrier or support will a named role test?
- When will the team review delivery, attendance and new evidence together?
Use the persistent and severe absence measure guide when a threshold needs interpreting. The attendance cohort-view guide covers group analysis, and the family-contact checks help teams prepare an accessible conversation route.
Sources and further reading
- Department for Education, Working together to improve school attendance, statutory guidance for England, published 6 May 2022 and updated 9 July 2026.
- Department for Education, Monitor your school attendance: how to use the absence bandings report, guidance for England updated 22 July 2026.
- Department for Education, Monitor your school attendance: user guide, published 27 March 2024 and updated 22 July 2026.
- Department for Education, Mental health issues affecting a pupil's attendance: guidance for schools, guidance for England published 7 February 2023.
- Department for Education, RISE attendance improvement, England school-support resources updated 9 June 2026.
To see how an authorised attendance signal can lead to a reviewable support action, request an attendance-focused walkthrough.